← EFL League One 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthew Russell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Exeter win | 30% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Exeter +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Exeter |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sonny Cox · Exeter |
| 50' | ⚽ | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Luton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ethan Brierley · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| 153.00 |
| 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1509.89 | 1519.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.45 | 38.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 26.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.69 |