← EFL League One 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Coy, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 51% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Doncaster win | 24% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Doncaster +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bolton |
| 47' | 🟨 | Xavier Simons · Bolton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Glenn Middleton · Doncaster |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Harry Clifton · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 153.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.88 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1365.60 | 1508.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.47 | -2.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 69.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 14.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 21.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 1.98 |
| solidity v1 | -2.08 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | -1.46 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 2.05 |