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Stockport 4–2 Doncaster

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Parsons, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport win50%1.76
Draw26%3.40
Doncaster win24%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stockport −0.551%1.88
Doncaster −0.549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.75
Under46%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Luke Molyneux · Doncaster
28'🟨Jack Senior · Doncaster
29'⚽ (pen)Oliver Norwood · Stockport
38'🟨Adetayo Edun · Stockport
60'⚽Kyle Wootton · Stockport
66'🟨Oliver Norwood · Stockport
75'⚽Owen Bailey · Doncaster
80'🟨Odin Bailey · Stockport
83'⚽Kyle Wootton · Stockport
90'🟨Billy Sharp · Doncaster
90'⚽ (og)Jack Senior

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots12
6On target5
4Corners3
12Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStockportDoncaster
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.710.60
cards avg (last 5)1.403.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEdgeley Park
· Stockport
coach days150.00150.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.273.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.19
dominance (last 5)0.490.46
elo1636.161489.46
elo momentum (last 5)-18.19-48.21
eye test v1-0.06-0.60
eye trend v10.070.13
first sub minute (last 10)56.2057.60
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.620.65
league points35.0022.00
league rank7.0023.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4071.00
possession avg (last 5)54.6047.40
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.320.30
season ppg1.671.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.4010.80
skill v1-0.05-0.73
solidity v10.14-1.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.40
state index-0.04-1.04
sterile dominance v10.41-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.461.61
xg for avg (last 5)1.291.09