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Huddersfield 2–0 Northampton

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Will Finnie, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win61%1.49
Draw24%3.75
Northampton win14%6.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Northampton −150%1.93
Huddersfield −150%1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.80
Over47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟨Ross Fitzsimons · Northampton
45'🟨Dean Campbell · Northampton
45'⚽Joe Low · Huddersfield
62'🟨Terry Taylor · Northampton
83'⚽Bojan Radulović · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots8
5On target2
8Corners3
13Fouls12
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldNorthampton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.580.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.740.74
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smit
coach days
150.00
150.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.20
corner diff avg (last 5)0.803.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.621.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.11
dominance (last 5)0.630.36
elo1535.101493.73
elo momentum (last 5)26.314.31
eye test v10.78-0.67
eye trend v10.05-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)61.8048.50
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.670.68
league points34.0027.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank9.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6058.00
possession avg (last 5)50.4040.60
rest days3.203.20
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg1.551.29
shot diff avg (last 5)4.20-7.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.409.80
skill v10.16-1.63
solidity v11.04-1.53
sot against avg (last 5)2.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)7.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.00
squad age25.36—
state index0.45-0.29
sterile dominance v1-0.19-1.24
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.29
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.822.23
xg for avg (last 5)2.091.43