← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Charles Breakspear, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 53% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Stevenage win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Cardiff −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | 🟨 | Harvey White · Stevenage |
| 57' | ⚽ | Phoenix Patterson · Stevenage |
| 64' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 82' | ⚽ | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Colwill · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Louis Thompson · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 150.00 | 637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1530.49 | 1580.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.88 | 4.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 44.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | -1.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.36 | 0.99 |