← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Peter Wright, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 68% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.50 |
| Mansfield win | 11% | 8.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mansfield −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Elliott Hewitt · Mansfield |
| 43' | ⚽ | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 58' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nathan Moriah-Welsh · Mansfield |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Cissoko · Bolton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Louis Reed · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 150.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1522.40 | 1425.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.02 | -13.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 29.88 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |