← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Paul Howard, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Lincoln win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Lincoln +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Thomas Hamer · Lincoln |
| 18' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Barnsley |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bland · Barnsley |
| 72' | ⚽ | Adam Reach · Lincoln |
| 82' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 86' | 🟨 | Patrick Kelly · Barnsley |
| 86' | 🟨 | Thomas Hamer · Lincoln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| coach days |
| 150.00 |
| 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1522.15 | 1609.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.74 | 38.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -1.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |