← EFL League One 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Jacob Miles, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Exeter win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.25 | 55% | 1.75 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jack McMillan · Exeter |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Bishop · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Myles Hippolyte · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Whitworth · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 150.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1504.22 | 1498.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.41 | 8.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| league points | 28.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |