← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: James Durkin, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Plymouth win | 35% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Plymouth +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 12' | 🟥 | Joe Ralls · Plymouth |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 18' | ⚽ | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 20' | ⚽ | Kami Doyle · Reading |
| 23' | 🟨 | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 30' | 🟨 | Andy Yiadom · Reading |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alex Mitchell · Plymouth |
| 68' | ⚽ | Xavier Amaechi · Plymouth |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jeriel Dorsett · Reading |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 147.00 |
| 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1452.82 | 1550.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.59 | 0.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.64 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.69 |