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Huddersfield 5–0 Port Vale

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Woods, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win56%1.62
Draw25%3.70
Port Vale win19%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield −0.7551%1.90
Port Vale −0.7549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.90
Under50%1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Leo Castledine · Huddersfield
14'🟨George Byers · Port Vale
15'⚽Ryan Ledson · Huddersfield
32'⚽Bojan Radulović · Huddersfield
50'⚽Alfie May · Huddersfield
58'⚽Leo Castledine · Huddersfield
73'🟨Ruben Roosken · Huddersfield
88'🟨Cameron Ashia · Huddersfield
90'🟨Ben Heneghan · Port Vale

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
17Shots9
9On target0
6Corners5
13Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldPort Vale
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.750.72
cards avg (last 5)1.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smit
coach days
147.00
147.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.04
corner diff avg (last 5)2.401.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.622.44
defensive leak (last 5)0.260.11
dominance (last 5)0.650.50
elo1519.701498.27
elo momentum (last 5)9.70-32.01
eye test v10.83-0.94
eye trend v1-0.040.20
first sub minute (last 10)62.4048.50
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v1—0.65
league points31.0015.00
league rank8.0024.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.004.00
matches since win0.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2065.20
possession avg (last 5)53.4043.60
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.210.42
season ppg1.480.75
shot diff avg (last 5)6.20-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.0011.00
skill v10.34-1.22
solidity v10.660.32
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.502.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.002.40
squad age25.36—
state index0.02-0.83
sterile dominance v1-0.04-0.96
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.801.30
xg for avg (last 5)1.991.15