← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tom Reeves, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 61% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Exeter win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Cardiff −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 56' | 🟨 | Isaak Davies · Cardiff |
| 82' | 🟨 | Liam Oakes · Exeter |
| 87' | 🟨 | Joel Bagan · Cardiff |
| 89' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1522.67 | 1505.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.81 | 9.80 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 41.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.50 | 1.38 |