← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sam Mulhall, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Northampton win | 28% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Burton −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 23' | ⚽ | Jack Armer · Burton |
| 28' | ⚽ (og) | Max Dyche · Burton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tyrese Shade · Burton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ethan Wheatley · Northampton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Dylan Williams · Burton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Terence Vancooten · Burton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jack Burroughs · Northampton |
| 77' | 🟨 | George Evans · Burton |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tyrese Shade · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days |
| 147.00 |
| 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1509.94 | 1509.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.21 | 0.36 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 61.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -1.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.55 |