← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 68% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
| Rotherham win | 11% | 8.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bolton −1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 63' | 🟨 | ArJany Martha · Rotherham |
| 69' | 🟨 | Max Conway · Bolton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jamal Baptiste · Rotherham |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 147.00 |
| 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1583.55 | 1497.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.47 | -49.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 34.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.61 |
| solidity v1 | 1.29 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.29 |