← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Rock, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 36% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.75 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 31% | 2.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | 🟨 | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Stevenage |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jordan Houghton · Stevenage |
| 73' | 🟨 | Harvey White · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 634.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1383.80 | 1498.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.70 | 17.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 27.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 63.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -1.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.92 |