← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Scott Oldham, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.95 |
| Burton win | 25% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Burton −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Tyrese Shade · Burton |
| 46' | ⚽ | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 60' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Armer · Stevenage |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dylan Williams · Burton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Saxon Earley · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 628.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1584.61 | 1506.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.38 | -2.65 |
| eye test v1 | -1.33 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 34.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.91 | -1.17 |
| solidity v1 | 1.28 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.04 |