← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 19, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Carl Brook, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.05 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Northampton −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Conor McCarthy · Northampton |
| 16' | ⚽ | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jordan Thorniley · Northampton |
| 47' | 🟨 | Nathan Asiimwe · AFC Wimbledon |
| 50' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 59' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Northampton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 140.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1495.91 | 1517.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.05 | -46.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 6.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.24 | -0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.10 |