← EFL League One 2025-26 · Thu, Dec 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Edward Duckworth, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Luton win | 33% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Luton +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Lewis Wing · Reading |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jack Marriott · Reading |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Andy Yiadom · Reading |
| 76' | ⚽ | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Luton |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days | 139.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1544.17 | 1484.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.05 | 0.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| league points | 22.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 63.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.80 |