← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Rock, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
| Rotherham win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rotherham −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Kian Spence · Rotherham |
| 42' | ⚽ | Joe Ralls · Plymouth |
| 55' | 🟨 | Julio Pleguezuelo · Plymouth |
| 65' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Plymouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 74' | 🟨 | Daniel Gore · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 134.00 |
| 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1414.65 | 1527.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.18 | -2.65 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -1.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.00 |