← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Swabey, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 56% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
| Port Vale win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Luton −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Ben Heneghan · Port Vale |
| 26' | ⚽ | Cohen Bramall · Luton |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ben Waine · Port Vale |
| 54' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Port Vale |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mads Juel Andersen · Luton |
| 77' | 🟨 | George Byers · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days |
| 134.00 |
| 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1485.72 | 1509.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.90 | -49.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -1.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.31 | — |
| state index | -0.20 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.04 |