← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alex Chilowicz, USA
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Doncaster win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Doncaster −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.65 |
| Under | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
| 25' | ⚽ | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 34' | ⚽ | Cian Ashford · Cardiff |
| 42' | ⚽ | Brandon Hanlan · Doncaster |
| 50' | ⚽ | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
| 57' | 🟨 | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ben Close · Doncaster |
| 72' | ⚽ | Harry Clifton · Doncaster |
| 76' | 🟨 | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ryan Wintle · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joel Bagan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 134.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1562.74 | 1400.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.64 | -15.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 38.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.64 |