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Bradford 2–0 Reading

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Howard, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bradford win44%2.10
Reading win29%3.20
Draw28%3.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bradford −0.2551%1.88
Reading −0.2549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Reading
47'🟨Paudie O’Connor · Reading
56'⚽Antoni Sarcevic · Bradford
84'⚽Bobby Pointon · Bradford
86'🟨Brad Halliday · Bradford
90'🟨Kelvin Abrefa · Reading

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots8
4On target2
3Corners2
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBradfordReading
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.620.57
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueValley Parade
coach days134.00134.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.122.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.09
dominance (last 5)0.430.56
elo1609.161554.39
elo momentum (last 5)-3.8811.87
eye test v1-0.490.26
eye trend v1-0.100.19
first sub minute (last 10)51.5062.60
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.780.72
league points34.0022.00
league rank3.0020.00
matches since blank2.0016.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.2072.00
possession avg (last 5)47.8051.40
rest days7.103.79
scorer concentration0.220.25
season ppg1.891.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.603.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4013.60
skill v1-0.74-0.17
solidity v10.360.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.80
state index0.250.24
sterile dominance v1-0.62-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.280.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
travel km—270.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.430.98
xg for avg (last 5)1.511.57