← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Speedie, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 67% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.50 |
| Exeter win | 13% | 7.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −1.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Bolton −1.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Jack Aitchison · Exeter |
| 70' | ⚽ | Sam Dalby · Bolton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sil Swinkels · Exeter |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Exeter |
| 82' | ⚽ | Thierry Gale · Bolton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| 134.00 |
| 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1585.66 | 1493.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.36 | 7.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.68 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 31.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 1.43 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.49 |