← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Mansfield win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Baily Cargill · Mansfield |
| 37' | 🟨 | Elliott Hewitt · Mansfield |
| 62' | 🟨 | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Junior Nkeng · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 134.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1519.29 | 1500.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.83 | -48.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 26.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -0.95 |
| solidity v1 | -0.97 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 2.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.87 |