← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: James Oldham, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Stevenage win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage +0.25 | 56% | 1.83 |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 44% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 45' | 🟨 | Charlie Goode · Stevenage |
| 75' | 🟨 | Daniel Phillips · Stevenage |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ryan Doherty · Stevenage |
| 82' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
| 85' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 2 | Shots | 11 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 617.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1576.72 | 1507.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.64 | 28.52 |
| eye test v1 | -1.41 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | — |
| league points | 31.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 10.21 | 3.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |