← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Parsons, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bolton win | 51% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Mansfield win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bolton +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Mansfield +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.73 |
| Under | 38% | 2.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand