← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Dale Baines,
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Barnsley win | 28% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley −0.5 | 59% | 1.75 |
| Lincoln −0.5 | 41% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 36' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 67' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Barnsley |
| 68' | ⚽ | Tom Bayliss · Lincoln |
| 71' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days | 130.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1577.90 | 1554.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.01 | 22.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 10.20 | 10.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.20 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.69 |