← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Parsons, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 37% | 2.45 |
| Plymouth win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Plymouth +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoni Sarcevic · Bradford |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jenson Metcalfe · Bradford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Malachi Boateng · Plymouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Max Power · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brad Halliday · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 127.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1404.15 | 1602.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.65 | -9.30 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 46.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 16.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.92 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |