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Cardiff 3–2 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cardiff win46%2.01
Huddersfield win29%3.20
Draw26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield −0.554%1.75
Cardiff −0.546%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.62
Under42%2.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Yousef Salech · Cardiff
45'🟨Joel Bagan · Cardiff
51'⚽Leo Castledine · Huddersfield
62'⚽Yousef Salech · Cardiff
73'🟨Ryan Ledson · Huddersfield
86'⚽Isaak Davies · Cardiff
89'⚽Joe Taylor · Huddersfield
90'🟨Alex Robertson · Cardiff

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots13
8On target3
4Corners9
8Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCardiffHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.610.63
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCardiff City Stadium
coach days127.00127.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.064.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.19
dominance (last 5)0.440.53
elo1498.611508.79
elo momentum (last 5)30.437.48
eye test v10.350.80
eye trend v10.610.61
first sub minute (last 10)56.2058.40
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.780.70
league points32.0026.00
league rank1.009.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)57.6048.60
rest days6.906.90
scorer concentration0.230.15
season ppg2.001.53
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.603.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.4015.20
skill v10.76-0.40
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)8.007.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.406.60
squad age28.2425.36
state index0.31-0.12
sterile dominance v10.54-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.240.28
threat rate (last 3)0.320.31
threat rate (last 5)0.250.30
travel km—261.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20