← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M Woods
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 55% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Burton win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Wigan −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Jasper Moon · Burton |
| 41' | ⚽ | Paul Mullin · Wigan |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jensen Weir · Wigan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wigan | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | The Brick Community Stadium |
| coach days | 123.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.18 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1468.18 | 1410.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.26 | 21.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 26.20 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.07 |