← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephen Parkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Northampton win | 24% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Plymouth −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Jordan Thorniley · Northampton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ethan Wheatley · Northampton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Conor McCarthy · Northampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 65' | 🟥 | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 69' | 🟨 | Terry Taylor · Northampton |
| 76' | ⚽ | Elliott List · Northampton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jordan Willis · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Forbes · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 120.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1421.24 | 1489.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.66 | -17.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -1.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.19 |