← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruebyn Ricardo, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Luton win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Luton +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Xavier Simons · Bolton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nigel Cello Lonwijk · Luton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Xavier Simons · Bolton |
| 70' | 🟥 | Xavier Simons · Bolton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Gideon Kodua · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| 120.00 |
| 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1479.86 | 1576.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.78 | 11.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | 0.64 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.31 | — |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 235.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.19 |