← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Peter Wright, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 49% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Port Vale win | 23% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Lincoln −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 77' | 🟨 | Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln |
| 84' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Port Vale |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kyle John · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | LNER stadium |
| coach days |
| 120.00 |
| 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1571.09 | 1516.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.34 | -52.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.33 |