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Huddersfield 3–3 AFC Wimbledon

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Scott Oldham, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win51%1.81
Draw28%3.30
AFC Wimbledon win21%4.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield −0.551%1.88
AFC Wimbledon −0.549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon
46'⚽Leo Castledine · Huddersfield
48'⚽Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · AFC Wimbledon
57'🟨Myles Hippolyte · AFC Wimbledon
63'⚽Ben Wiles · Huddersfield
71'⚽Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon
73'🟨Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon
81'🟨Cameron Ashia · Huddersfield
86'⚽Alfie May · Huddersfield
89'🟨Bojan Radulović · Huddersfield

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
25Shots7
10On target4
11Corners2
10Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldAFC Wimbledon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.560.62
cards avg (last 5)1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smit
2.00
coach days120.00120.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.552.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.16
dominance (last 5)0.440.43
elo1510.001527.63
elo momentum (last 5)-2.04-43.23
eye test v10.24-0.88
eye trend v10.76-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)58.4062.80
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.750.65
league points25.0025.00
league rank9.008.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.005.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4069.00
possession avg (last 5)43.6049.20
rest days3.807.00
scorer concentration0.130.18
season ppg1.561.56
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.609.20
skill v1-0.28-0.94
solidity v10.40-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 3)7.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.00
squad age25.36—
state index-0.19-0.58
sterile dominance v1-0.620.07
threat rate (last 10)0.260.20
threat rate (last 3)0.320.20
threat rate (last 5)0.260.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.661.65
xg for avg (last 5)1.890.83