← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 56% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Mansfield win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Cardiff −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | William Fish · Cardiff |
| 40' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 62' | 🟨 | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 70' | ⚽ | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
| 87' | ⚽ | Cian Ashford · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 120.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1481.86 | 1526.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.87 | -10.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.09 |