← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Eley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Exeter win | 16% | 5.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Bradford −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Joe Wright · Bradford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Max Power · Bradford |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sam Walker · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Valley Parade |
| coach days | 120.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1597.43 | 1489.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.76 | -0.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 28.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.46 |