← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| Doncaster win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Doncaster −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 87' | 🟨 | Glenn Middleton · Doncaster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days |
| 600.00 |
| 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1569.23 | 1535.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.24 | -47.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 15.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 1.46 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 2.30 |