← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Hair, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Northampton win | 26% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Cardiff +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Joel Colwill · Cardiff |
| 19' | 🟨 | William Fish · Cardiff |
| 55' | 🟨 | Joel Colwill · Cardiff |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ethan Wheatley · Northampton |
| 60' | ⚽ (og) | Ethan Wheatley · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chris Willock · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1412.13 | 1524.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.28 | -28.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| league points | 20.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | 0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.56 |