← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Eley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.85 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 30% | 3.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan +0 | 55% | 1.75 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over | 35% | 2.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Fraser Murray · Wigan |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 70' | ⚽ | Alistair Smith · AFC Wimbledon |
| 77' | ⚽ | Harrison Bettoni · Wigan |
| 87' | ⚽ | Harrison Bettoni · Wigan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 4.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1539.78 | 1523.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.96 | 2.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.60 |