← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Abigail Byrne, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Plymouth win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.5 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Port Vale −0.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 65' | 🟨 | Law McCabe · Plymouth |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kyle John · Port Vale |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1384.00 | 1446.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.31 | -60.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.99 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.80 |