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Peterboro 3–0 Stockport

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Thu, Nov 20, 08:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M Russell

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win37%2.45
Stockport win36%2.55
Draw27%3.40

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro +051%1.88
Stockport +049%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.75
Under46%2.05

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Benjamin Woods · Peterboro
9'🟨Harry Leonard · Peterboro
13'🟨Callum Connolly · Stockport
37'⚽Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro
76'⚽Brandon Khela · Peterboro

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots11
5On target5
3Corners6
7Fouls18
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroStockport
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
box share (last 5)0.640.69
cards avg (last 5)2.201.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days111.00111.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.831.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.59
elo1466.901679.06
elo momentum (last 5)7.63-1.24
eye test v1-0.230.29
eye trend v10.580.01
first sub minute (last 10)60.4062.30
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.50
keeper form v10.680.78
league points13.0028.00
league rank23.002.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0077.80
possession avg (last 5)51.6051.00
rest days12.2112.21
scorer concentration0.200.32
season ppg0.931.87
shot diff avg (last 5)0.804.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0014.20
skill v10.14-0.01
solidity v10.290.58
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.20
state index-0.010.70
sterile dominance v10.05-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.101.27
xg for avg (last 5)1.531.27