← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruebyn Ricardo, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Exeter win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Leyton Orient −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Jack Simpson · Leyton Orient |
| 16' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Jayden Wareham · Exeter |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Leyton Orient |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ethan Brierley · Exeter |
| 76' | ⚽ | Idris El Mizouni · Leyton Orient |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tyreeq Bakinson · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Azeem Abdulai · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Brisbane Road |
| coach days |
| 106.00 |
| 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1580.22 | 1496.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.11 | 20.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.32 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 2.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.32 |