← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Swabey, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Blackpool win | 31% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackpool −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Burton −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | 🟨 | Lee Evans · Blackpool |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ashley Fletcher · Blackpool |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Burton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tom Bloxham · Blackpool |
| 74' | 🟨 | Oliver Casey · Blackpool |
| 80' | 🟨 | John Joshua Mckiernan · Burton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bradley Collins · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 106.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1523.15 | 1541.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.61 | -1.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.53 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 2.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.52 |