← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Josh Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Luton win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Stockport −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Owen Dodgson · Stockport |
| 30' | 🟨 | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jake Richards · Luton |
| 38' | ⚽ | Cohen Bramall · Luton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Cohen Bramall · Luton |
| 54' | 🟨 | George Saville · Luton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Josh Keeley · Luton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Isaiah Jones · Luton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Owen Dodgson · Stockport |
| 81' | 🟥 | Owen Dodgson · Stockport |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stockport | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Edgeley Park |
| coach days | 99.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1709.16 | 1453.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.58 | 8.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.68 |
| league points | 28.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 11.79 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.74 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.31 |
| state index | 1.15 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.22 |