← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alex Chilowicz, USA
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 46% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Rotherham win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Rotherham +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Reece James · Rotherham |
| 31' | ⚽ | ArJany Martha · Rotherham |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Denzel Hall · Rotherham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days |
| 99.00 |
| 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1529.88 | 1588.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.62 | 1.52 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 10.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.45 | -1.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |