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Huddersfield 3–1 Plymouth

← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastian Stockbridge, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win49%1.86
Draw27%3.40
Plymouth win24%3.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Plymouth −0.551%1.90
Huddersfield −0.549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Owen Dale · Plymouth
13'🟨Malachi Boateng · Plymouth
17'🟨Josh Feeney · Huddersfield
36'🟨Kornél Szűcs · Plymouth
45'⚽Bojan Radulović · Huddersfield
54'🟨Bradley Ibrahim · Plymouth
58'🟨Mathias Ross · Plymouth
70'⚽Dion Charles · Huddersfield
85'⚽Cameron Ashia · Huddersfield
88'⚽Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth
89'🟨Lynden Gooch

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots8
9On target2
11Corners3
13Fouls18
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldPlymouth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.550.64
cards avg (last 5)1.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJohn Smit
· Huddersfield
89'🟨Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth
coach days99.0099.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.401.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)8.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.262.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.14
dominance (last 5)0.460.51
elo1490.811415.82
elo momentum (last 5)-19.410.52
eye test v1-0.50-0.35
eye trend v1-0.10-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)53.6052.50
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.65
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.640.70
league points19.0013.00
league rank14.0022.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6072.40
possession avg (last 5)49.2054.60
rest days14.0410.80
scorer concentration0.130.31
season ppg1.460.93
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6011.20
skill v1-0.02-0.46
solidity v10.06-0.54
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
squad age25.36—
state index-0.37-0.43
sterile dominance v1-0.170.21
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.832.06
xg for avg (last 5)1.590.86