← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Hicks, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 56% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Burton win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Burton −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Bradford |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jack Armer · Burton |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Charlie Webster · Burton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alex Hartridge · Burton |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jake Beesley · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kgagelo Chauke · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Valley Parade |
| coach days | 99.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1610.58 | 1508.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.65 | 25.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 10.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -1.45 |
| solidity v1 | 1.07 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.21 |