← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Coy, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 54% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
| Port Vale win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Bolton −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Amario Cozier-Duberry · Bolton |
| 36' | ⚽ | Xavier Simons · Bolton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Cissoko · Bolton |
| 68' | ⚽ | Amario Cozier-Duberry · Bolton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Kyle Dempsey · Bolton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cameron Humphreys · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ruari Paton · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 99.00 |
| 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1563.50 | 1544.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.70 | -7.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| league points | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 14.15 | 11.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.47 |