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Wycombe 4–1 Leyton Orient

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Nov 8, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Martin Woods, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe win50%1.86
Draw26%3.60
Leyton Orient win24%3.80

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient βˆ’0.550%1.93
Wycombe βˆ’0.550%1.93

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Fred Onyedinma · Wycombe
10'🟨Will Norris · Wycombe
11'⚽ (pen)Aaron Connolly · Leyton Orient
16'⚽Fred Onyedinma · Wycombe
17'🟨Azeem Abdulai · Leyton Orient
26'🟨Killian Cahill · Leyton Orient
30'⚽Dan Casey · Wycombe
34'🟨Thomas James · Leyton Orient
75'⚽Sam Bell · Wycombe
77'🟨Cauley Woodrow · Wycombe
90'🟨Alex Lowry · Wycombe

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
14Shots13
9On target4
5Corners5
7Fouls13
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWycombeLeyton Orient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.620.64
cards avg (last 5)0.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueAdams Park
coach days
99.00
99.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.18
corner diff avg (last 5)3.802.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.807.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.192.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.15
dominance (last 5)0.620.54
elo1598.981594.50
elo momentum (last 5)7.56-11.60
eye test v1-0.020.08
eye trend v10.580.05
first sub minute (last 10)54.1057.20
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.35
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.720.79
league points16.0017.00
league rank18.0015.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2070.40
possession avg (last 5)56.8056.20
rest days13.9413.94
scorer concentration0.190.30
season ppg1.141.21
shot diff avg (last 5)5.602.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.40
skill v10.22-0.41
solidity v10.590.06
sot against avg (last 5)2.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
state index0.570.09
sterile dominance v10.51-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.521.26
xg for avg (last 5)1.391.02