← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 42% | 2.15 |
| Northampton win | 30% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Northampton +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jack Perkins · Northampton |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Eaves · Northampton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jordan Thorniley · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 99.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1498.96 | 1556.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.39 | 28.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 13.94 | 10.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.75 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.50 |