← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Ross Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Burton win | 34% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Rotherham −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ | Kyran Lofthouse · Burton |
| 63' | ⚽ | Tyrese Shade · Burton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Toby Sibbick · Burton |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Toby Sibbick · Rotherham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tyrese Shade · Burton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bradley Collins · Burton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hamish Douglas · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days |
| 95.00 |
| 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1532.31 | 1506.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.43 | 34.83 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| league points | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 58.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 10.24 | 10.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | -2.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -1.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |